Robin Hanson reminds you that betting markets are the way forward, so I applaud your being willing to put money down. You sound pretty confident. What odds you giving?
Robin Hanson reminds you that betting markets are the way forward, so I applaud your being willing to put money down. You sound pretty confident. What odds you giving?
I've gotten so good at losing weight (and bad at preventing regaining it) I do "diet bets" at healthywage.com and waybetter and have made a lot of money. But yes, you'd want some neutral party to measure for a real prediction market.
Even then, I'd fast for 3 days and then eat a huge salad, +15lbs lean mass in a day easy. If it's weight based, obviously the opposite. Maybe if you mixed the 2.. not sure.
I assume that for high stakes prediction markets there would be an 3rd party arbiter and a dexa scan and weigh ins over a week period or something. In all honesty I think this would be a great idea but the problem, like all diet claims, is тАЬhow well does the subject adhere?тАЭ And the difficulty in verifying that.
The diet bet things IтАЩm winning all have implicit тАЬcalorie restrictionтАЭ assumptions, and in fact heavily counsel you against taking any weight loss method that actually works.
I agree on the point about either making the weigh in date unknown from both parties (within some two тАУ week range or something.) or averaging it over some number of days.
Robin Hanson reminds you that betting markets are the way forward, so I applaud your being willing to put money down. You sound pretty confident. What odds you giving?
Uhhhhh prediction markets for diets that's awesome
Easy to game though cause weight and bf% is so noisy..
I've gotten so good at losing weight (and bad at preventing regaining it) I do "diet bets" at healthywage.com and waybetter and have made a lot of money. But yes, you'd want some neutral party to measure for a real prediction market.
Even then, I'd fast for 3 days and then eat a huge salad, +15lbs lean mass in a day easy. If it's weight based, obviously the opposite. Maybe if you mixed the 2.. not sure.
I assume that for high stakes prediction markets there would be an 3rd party arbiter and a dexa scan and weigh ins over a week period or something. In all honesty I think this would be a great idea but the problem, like all diet claims, is тАЬhow well does the subject adhere?тАЭ And the difficulty in verifying that.
The diet bet things IтАЩm winning all have implicit тАЬcalorie restrictionтАЭ assumptions, and in fact heavily counsel you against taking any weight loss method that actually works.
I agree on the point about either making the weigh in date unknown from both parties (within some two тАУ week range or something.) or averaging it over some number of days.