Hypothetical #1: Bob Changes Shape Hypothetical: a man named Bob (pictured left) wants to change his shape, from oval to rectangle. There are various diets out there, all claiming to have The Solution for shape change. Bob researches on the internet, and a lot of people seem to be having success with the Low-derp diet. The secret is to eat a very low amount of derp, as derp causes the body to take on an oval shape. People recommend less than 20g of derp per day for the first few weeks, the so-called “induction phase,” and then stay below 50g of derp per day for the long term. Reviews are positive. People are posting pictures of their shape before and after the diet, and they all look very rectangular.
> Pro tip: if you’re lactose intolerant, don’t do a heavy cream diet.
I still do consume a lot of it at times, it's too good.🤣 Though my intolerance is better these days. It used to be extremely bad, where any dairy would set me off hard and give the runs within 30 minutes.
Fun article, though, loved the humor. 😆Also very relatable to what I have seen in various groups online. Nutrition With Judy podcast mentions this at times, how "just try harder" is not the solution for everything as well, and how it can be very detrimental at times even.
Not only are there various reasons why a car broke down, it also often isn’t the same reason when it happens again. Meaning an approach you find that works for you today, may not be the one to use next year. That’s why imho we should work towards finding diagnostic parameters that indicate this in a dependable manner, rather than having to play Wheel of Fortune repeatedly so see if we can find something that works by mere chance (or elimination).
It might well be that alternating herp and derp will provide an optimal effect, but that’s not something any of those ‘the x diet is the best’ ever offers as a possibility. Instead they often propagate the opposite, stick to it like a monk to his faith or you too shall be damned (“dirty” keto rings a bell)? While that makes so little sense from the perspective of tweaking a self regulating system, where by design it will try to cope with the circumstances rather than throw its hands in the air and say “all right you got me, take everything you want”. Wasn’t it Einstein that said something like “the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?”. I think we might add expecting the *same* results to that as well.
How would the decision tree work if I’ve only ever lost large amounts of weight on CICO/calorie restriction? Especially if I’ve been able to largely keep the weight off after the fact?
The first fat loss that worked was chicken, green beans, cauliflower, and rarely fruit for 6 months (high protein, near-zero carb, near-zero fat) at 900-1100 kcal/day. Exercised 4-5 days/week. Lost 70lbs. Ruined my health.
The second fat loss that worked was 2 months ago, exclusively chicken for 1.5 months (high protein, zero carb, near-zero fat) at 1600 kcal/day. Exercised 3 days/month. Lost 20lbs. Messed up my energy levels.
Both fat losses normalized and were largely maintained (TBD on recent fat loss, but maintaining new lower weight so far). The second fat loss was required due to an acute fat gain of 15lbs due to acutely very high calorie processed foods, not due to a creeping return to a higher bodyfat.
That said, I have never lost weight consuming at or near my TDEE on any of the various non-CICO diets I’ve tried, whether it was low fodmap, high-carb meat-based (carbs from organic fruit), high-fat meat-based (fat from tallow or egg yolks) or otherwise. Eating at or around my TDEE has always meant maintaining weight.
Not asking from the perspective of advocating CICO. I badly want it not to be that reductionist. But only calorie restriction has worked for me, macros aside. So long as I’m below my TDEE by >200-300 calories/day, I’ve seen rapid weight loss.
This is not radically different than how many psych pharmaceuticals are prescribed! You try drug 1 for a few weeks, see if it works and if you can tolerate the side effects - if you can't, you ask your doc for drug 2 and repeat until you find one that does. Ideally yes, we'd have a better theory of how it all works and just skip right to drug 13 for you and it magically works best, but we aren't there yet.
Great article. I've come to very similar conclusions after reading A LOT of RCTs. I call the approach n=Dave ... because who really cares what worked for 8/10 subjects, I'm trying to figure out what works for Dave.
I like your GIGO analogy. I wonder if the analogy to a fever would make more sense to the medical & wellness communities. Elevated body temperature can be a problem in and of itself, but we don't know whether it's a problem or how to manage it until we understand what is causing the elevated temperature. I could go on and on about this, but I'm sure you've gotten the point. Oh, and thank you, because this has given me a new discussion point wrt elevated weight.
Gradually becoming aware of how complicatedly homeostatic the human metabolism is, and how unaligned with our goals it is has been shocking for me in a way that has a kind of harsh beauty to it. E.g. understanding how our nearest relatives among the animals can lie around and eat fruit all day and effortlessly maintain frightening (tear-your-arm-off) amounts of muscle gives a person a "being human is so very strange and also I feel like we chose the wrong evolutionary path -- I hope the tragic beauty is worth it".
Reading Pontzer's "Burn" was eye-opening as well, and perversely increased my desire to exercise.
I like the car analogy (though I personally don't drive). Also, there must be something morally wrong with your car or it's just lazy. You were lying about how much gas you put in. Or it's societies expectations and social conditioning that a car should be running that are the problem, stop oppressing the car by trying to force it to adhere to your standards of functionality.
It's unfortunate that there is little interest into research on behavioral tools and diet approaches, all the money is in pharmaceutical drugs and getting the government to fund anything is just not worth it. I like that there is a national weight control registry. I think we need more citizen research, technology seems to make this a lot easier over time and I have hopes that biosensors and blood tests become more accessible over time. While anxiety / excitement over the metrics can be a thing I still think it's a net positive.
"[W]what if it’s not that simple? What if it’s just slightly complicated enough so different people will thrive on different diets, and there isn’t one that works for everybody?"
This is, quite literally, how I've defined calorie in, calorie out over the years. One has to find their own way to making it work, and adding more things like heavy cardio, long walks, lifting, etc. to dieting is the path.
For me, it was exercising more and tracking my intake with an app; as it turns out, that app is from Nutritionix (it's just called Track now, and just as janky as before).
I think the important facet of the conversation around CICO is trying to steer oneself toward communicating with people that aren't assholes. In other terms, the Universal Internet Constant.
On a side note, thanks for all of the work that you do on this blog. You've sparked two different changes in me. For one, I started tracking my intake again, and I'm already seeing small amounts of weight loss beyond water weight disappearing. For another, I'm going to try a few supplements and see how they help (or don't). I think I've been low on potassium for years and never realized it. I'm also switching my magnesium lactate to citrate to see if that helps support fat loss for me.
Thank you for a very humorous explanation.
> Pro tip: if you’re lactose intolerant, don’t do a heavy cream diet.
I still do consume a lot of it at times, it's too good.🤣 Though my intolerance is better these days. It used to be extremely bad, where any dairy would set me off hard and give the runs within 30 minutes.
Fun article, though, loved the humor. 😆Also very relatable to what I have seen in various groups online. Nutrition With Judy podcast mentions this at times, how "just try harder" is not the solution for everything as well, and how it can be very detrimental at times even.
Not only are there various reasons why a car broke down, it also often isn’t the same reason when it happens again. Meaning an approach you find that works for you today, may not be the one to use next year. That’s why imho we should work towards finding diagnostic parameters that indicate this in a dependable manner, rather than having to play Wheel of Fortune repeatedly so see if we can find something that works by mere chance (or elimination).
It might well be that alternating herp and derp will provide an optimal effect, but that’s not something any of those ‘the x diet is the best’ ever offers as a possibility. Instead they often propagate the opposite, stick to it like a monk to his faith or you too shall be damned (“dirty” keto rings a bell)? While that makes so little sense from the perspective of tweaking a self regulating system, where by design it will try to cope with the circumstances rather than throw its hands in the air and say “all right you got me, take everything you want”. Wasn’t it Einstein that said something like “the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?”. I think we might add expecting the *same* results to that as well.
How would the decision tree work if I’ve only ever lost large amounts of weight on CICO/calorie restriction? Especially if I’ve been able to largely keep the weight off after the fact?
The first fat loss that worked was chicken, green beans, cauliflower, and rarely fruit for 6 months (high protein, near-zero carb, near-zero fat) at 900-1100 kcal/day. Exercised 4-5 days/week. Lost 70lbs. Ruined my health.
The second fat loss that worked was 2 months ago, exclusively chicken for 1.5 months (high protein, zero carb, near-zero fat) at 1600 kcal/day. Exercised 3 days/month. Lost 20lbs. Messed up my energy levels.
Both fat losses normalized and were largely maintained (TBD on recent fat loss, but maintaining new lower weight so far). The second fat loss was required due to an acute fat gain of 15lbs due to acutely very high calorie processed foods, not due to a creeping return to a higher bodyfat.
That said, I have never lost weight consuming at or near my TDEE on any of the various non-CICO diets I’ve tried, whether it was low fodmap, high-carb meat-based (carbs from organic fruit), high-fat meat-based (fat from tallow or egg yolks) or otherwise. Eating at or around my TDEE has always meant maintaining weight.
Not asking from the perspective of advocating CICO. I badly want it not to be that reductionist. But only calorie restriction has worked for me, macros aside. So long as I’m below my TDEE by >200-300 calories/day, I’ve seen rapid weight loss.
This is not radically different than how many psych pharmaceuticals are prescribed! You try drug 1 for a few weeks, see if it works and if you can tolerate the side effects - if you can't, you ask your doc for drug 2 and repeat until you find one that does. Ideally yes, we'd have a better theory of how it all works and just skip right to drug 13 for you and it magically works best, but we aren't there yet.
Great article. I've come to very similar conclusions after reading A LOT of RCTs. I call the approach n=Dave ... because who really cares what worked for 8/10 subjects, I'm trying to figure out what works for Dave.
I like your GIGO analogy. I wonder if the analogy to a fever would make more sense to the medical & wellness communities. Elevated body temperature can be a problem in and of itself, but we don't know whether it's a problem or how to manage it until we understand what is causing the elevated temperature. I could go on and on about this, but I'm sure you've gotten the point. Oh, and thank you, because this has given me a new discussion point wrt elevated weight.
Gradually becoming aware of how complicatedly homeostatic the human metabolism is, and how unaligned with our goals it is has been shocking for me in a way that has a kind of harsh beauty to it. E.g. understanding how our nearest relatives among the animals can lie around and eat fruit all day and effortlessly maintain frightening (tear-your-arm-off) amounts of muscle gives a person a "being human is so very strange and also I feel like we chose the wrong evolutionary path -- I hope the tragic beauty is worth it".
Reading Pontzer's "Burn" was eye-opening as well, and perversely increased my desire to exercise.
I love your complaint about randomized control trials and quoted it in a footnote to an article I posted the same day:
https://theotherendofthegalaxy.substack.com/publish/post/117996251#footnote-anchor-2
I like the car analogy (though I personally don't drive). Also, there must be something morally wrong with your car or it's just lazy. You were lying about how much gas you put in. Or it's societies expectations and social conditioning that a car should be running that are the problem, stop oppressing the car by trying to force it to adhere to your standards of functionality.
It's unfortunate that there is little interest into research on behavioral tools and diet approaches, all the money is in pharmaceutical drugs and getting the government to fund anything is just not worth it. I like that there is a national weight control registry. I think we need more citizen research, technology seems to make this a lot easier over time and I have hopes that biosensors and blood tests become more accessible over time. While anxiety / excitement over the metrics can be a thing I still think it's a net positive.
"[W]what if it’s not that simple? What if it’s just slightly complicated enough so different people will thrive on different diets, and there isn’t one that works for everybody?"
This is, quite literally, how I've defined calorie in, calorie out over the years. One has to find their own way to making it work, and adding more things like heavy cardio, long walks, lifting, etc. to dieting is the path.
For me, it was exercising more and tracking my intake with an app; as it turns out, that app is from Nutritionix (it's just called Track now, and just as janky as before).
I think the important facet of the conversation around CICO is trying to steer oneself toward communicating with people that aren't assholes. In other terms, the Universal Internet Constant.
On a side note, thanks for all of the work that you do on this blog. You've sparked two different changes in me. For one, I started tracking my intake again, and I'm already seeing small amounts of weight loss beyond water weight disappearing. For another, I'm going to try a few supplements and see how they help (or don't). I think I've been low on potassium for years and never realized it. I'm also switching my magnesium lactate to citrate to see if that helps support fat loss for me.
So, thank you.
I think about this algorithm/choice diagram a lot